596
FXUS66 KLOX 091100
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
300 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...09/259 AM.

Above-normal temperatures will persist today, before a weak storm
system crosses the region later Tuesday through Wednesday. Light
to moderate rain is expected, mainly Tuesday evening through early
Wednesday, with gusty southerly winds over the higher terrain,
especially Tuesday night. Temperatures will cool during the middle
of this week, followed by a gradual warming trend for late week
into the weekend. For the following week, multiple rounds of
precipitation and much cooler conditions are increasingly likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...09/1220 AM.

Ydy`s ridge has been flattened out by an approaching trof. Hgts
today will be about 10 dam lower than they were ydy. Offshore flow
is still hanging on, however, and this will keep most of the area
free of low cloud as well as help keeping above normal
temperatures. Plenty of clouds will stream in over the area in the
westerly flow and by afternoon or even late morning skies will
turn mostly cloudy. Max temps will cool 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees
today with most cst vly temps in the upper 60s and 70s. These max
temps are about 10 degrees above normal.

On Tuesday an upper low will develop in the trof and will push a
little more to the south as it nears the coast. Plenty of clouds
will arrive ahead of the low and it will be a mostly cloudy day.
While its likely that rain assoc with the low will hold off until
the late afternoon or evening, there is a slight (20 percent) chc
of rain in the morning across the Central Coast. A chc (30 to 40
percent) of rain will push across all of SLO and SBA county (a
better 70 percent chc will develop over the csts of SLO county) in
the afternoon. A slight chc of rain will develop as far south as
VTA county. Rainfall amounts, if any, will be under a tenth of an
inch. Max temps will nose dive 8 to 12 locally 15 degrees and max
temps across the csts/vlys will only be in the 60s or about 3
degrees blo normal.

The storm will move up towards and over the Bay Area overnight
Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. A trof will drag over Srn CA
and will bring rain to the entire area. Mdls are now showing a
good southerly wind component with the system and this will
enhance the rainfall across the coastal slopes. The flatter
portions of the csts and vlys will likely see a quarter to a half
inch of rain while the coastal slopes end up with double those
amounts. Some ensembles and notably the EC-AI mdl shows much more
rain than this current forecast with some solutions showing 2 to 3
inches. These heavier possible outcomes will be closely monitored
over the next 24 hours.

The main dynamics of the system will be to the east of the area by
mid morning Wednesday. A chc of showers will persist through the
day as some weaker follow up trofs run over the area. Additional
Rainfall amounts will be minimal - under a quarter inch. There
will be more sunshine but the cooler atmosphere behind the front will
bring 1 to 3 degrees of additional cooling.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...09/259 AM.

On Thursday the storm evolves into a long wave pos tilt trof with
an axis from srn ID to SLO county. It is fairly dry and should
produce any rainfall. Skies will be partly cloudy. The extra
sunshine will bring a few more degrees of warming but max temps
will remain a couple of degrees blo normal.

Friday will be the nicest day of the next 7 as a decent ridge
moves into the area and hgts rise to about 570 dam. Skies will be
mostly sunny and max temps will rise 3 to 5 degrees and end up in
the upper 60s to lower 70s across the csts and vlys.

The ridge quickly collapses as a new storm system approaches from
the west. The cloud shield assoc with the storm will move over the
state and skies will turn mostly cloudy. Aside from a slight chc
of rain across the Central Coast it should be dry through the
afternoon. Hgts will fall to about 564 dam and this along with the
cloudy skies will reduce max temps by 3 or 4 degrees.

A major pattern change develops Saturday evening and the weather
will turn wetter and colder for Sunday and the rest of the week of
the 15th to 20th.

On Saturday night a long wave trof will move into the west coast.
Rain will overspread the area overnight and continue through most
of Sunday. Snow levels will fall to 5000 ft and significant
snowfall accumulations will be possible above 5500 ft. Since this
system is still 7 days away there is uncertainly in the exact
timing and intensity. The AI mdls favor the ensembles exhibiting
the higher amounts and a half inch to an inch with hier amounts in
the mtns/foothills is a best first guess, but higher amounts are
very possible. There is uncertainty with the timing too and the
system may not really arrive until later Sunday. This is cold
system and max temps Sunday will fall 4 or 5 degrees and end up in
the upper 50s and lower 60s or 5 to 6 degrees blo normal.

After this storm medium range ensemble mdls and AI-mdls show a
following system arriving around Wednesday and another around
Friday. Wednesday`s system currently looks like the strongest and
coldest of these three and may bring many rain and snow issues to
the area.

These systems are still many days away and some changes to the
forecast is an almost certain. Srn Californians are encouraged to
continue reading this product for the latest developments with
this evolving stormy pattern. As the system draws closer people
should monitor all latest storm information published here at the
National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1021Z.

Around 0915Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. There was a
surface-based inversion up to around 1250 feet with a temperature
near 22 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. There is a high
chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions at terminals north of Point
Conception through 16Z. There is a moderate to high chance of LIFR
to IFR conditions developing at coastal terminals after 03Z
Tuesday.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through at least 08Z Tuesday.
There is a 40 percent chance of LIFR to IFR conditions after 08Z
Tuesday. Any easterly winds will be less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind
impacts are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...09/228 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Less
confidence exists in the swell forecast. Higher confidence exists
in the wind forecast.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, SCA conditions
are likely (60-80 percent) chance through much of the week. There
are a few periods where the swell and wind may drop off, but
winds and seas will likely remain near hazardous levels to small
craft through the forecast period. Local GALE force gusts are
possible this morning. There is a high to likely (50-70 percent)
chance of Gale Force southwesterly winds between mid-morning
Tuesday through Tuesday night, especially for the waters west
through north of Point Conception.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a moderate (30-40
percent) chance of SCA level winds through Tuesday morning,
increasing to a high to likely (50-70 percent) chance by Tuesday
evening. Winds will likely fall below SCA levels between Wednesday
and the end of the week, but there is a high to likely (40-60
percent) chance of SCA conditions developing each evening across
the western portions.

There is a high chance that marine conditions will be poor for the
upcoming weekend with rain, widespread hazardous seas, and gusty
winds spreading over the area between Friday and Tuesday. There is
a moderate to high (30-50 percent) chance of widespread GALES
early next week.

&&

.BEACHES...09/221 AM.

A high surf advisory remains in effect for the Ventura County
beaches through Wednesday, but there is a 40 percent chance that
the surf could subside this afternoon and evening then rise again
for Tuesday. While the swell will primarily be out of the west,
the swell will become more southwesterly late Tuesday through
Wednesday. During this time period, typically more sheltered south
to southwest-facing beaches and harbors will see elevated-to-
high surf conditions, and there is a chance that a high surf
advisory may be needed for Santa Barbara South Coast as swell
direction are a little more favorable.

Surf and swell will build Friday and likely remain near high surf
criteria through next weekend, then there is a moderate to high
chance of more widespread and higher surf developing early next
week. There is a 20-30 percent chance of damaging sets developing
between next Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Wednesday for
      zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through late
      Tuesday night for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Cohen/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office