698
FXUS65 KVEF 291701
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1000 AM PDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  There will be one more day of anomalous early-season heat before
   cooler temperatures arrive later in the week.

*  A pattern shift will bring near normal temperatures, breezy
   winds, and precipitation chances by the middle-to-end of next
   week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Saturday.

High pressure brings one more day of record-breaking temperatures
today before cooler temperatures arrive later this week. Las Vegas
has broken or tied daily record highs for 11 days in a row now, and
if the forecast plays out as expected, it will extend the streak to
12 days today. High temperature and warm minimum temperature records
are in jeopardy for most climate sites today - see the CLIMATE
section below for details. Another weak disturbance traverses the
region, bringing southwesterly winds gusting 20 to 30 mph to much of
the Mojave Desert this afternoon.

A pattern shift begins on Monday as a series of troughs move through
the western United States and the ridge weakens. Expect a 10 to 15
degree decrease in temperatures between today and Wednesday, at
which point highs will be within a few degrees of normal for early
April. A few degrees of additional cooling is possible by Friday as
a stronger area of low pressure moves through the Great Basin.
Another notable impact will be gusty winds Monday through Thursday,
with the strongest winds in western San Bernardino County. High
resolution guidance has backed off wind speeds on Monday and gusts
should generally be less than 40 mph outside of high terrain.
However, winds increase Tuesday through Thursday, especially in San
Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave counties. For Las Vegas, the highest
probability of gusts reaching 40 mph is 50 percent on Thursday.
Lastly, precipitation returns to the forecast on Tuesday and
Wednesday. A northerly plume of moisture will move into the eastern
Sierra and southern Great Basin, but this should be relatively weak
and intercepted by mountains. However, another plume of moisture
will approach the region from the southwest and should reach
southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. For this plume, guidance
is showing a stronger and more northerly solution compared to
previous model runs, thus allowing the shortwaves to tap into this
moisture source. Will continue to monitor trends to see if it
maintains this more favorable track.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Breezy
southwest winds are expected to return this afternoon with gusts 18-
25 knots likely (80%). There may be a brief period of southeast (120-
140 deg) winds between 18Z-20Z with speeds between 7-10 knots, but
confidence remains low. Southwest winds will diminish around 02Z
with speeds around 8-10 knots overnight. Scattered to broken high
clouds at or above 15-20kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light winds this morning
give way to breezy south/southwest winds this afternoon. Gusts 15-25
knots likely (70%) across the Mojave Desert, with winds weakening
around sunset. Scattered to broken high clouds at or above 12kft
across the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           SUN, MAR 29  MON, MAR 30  TUE, MAR 31
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     89(2015)*    90(2015)*    91(1966)
Bishop        84(2015)*    85(2015)     87(1966)
Needles       95(2015)*    98(2015)     97(2018)
Daggett       91(2015)*    92(2015)     91(2011)
Kingman       86(1934)*    87(2004)     88(1934)
Desert Rock   85(2015)*    86(2015)     84(2015)
Death Valley  102(2015)*   101(2015)    103(2015)

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      SUN, MAR 29  MON, MAR 30  TUE, MAR 31
              Record(Yr)   Record (Yr)  Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     62(2015)*    63(2015)*    65(2015)*
Bishop        50(2001)     49(2011)     50(2013)
Needles       66(1986)*    66(2013)*    69(1893)*
Daggett       60(2001)*    62(2013)*    63(1969)*
Kingman       51(1964)*    53(1974)     53(2025)*
Desert Rock   58(1986)*    59(2010)     54(1986)*
Death Valley  71(1943)*    77(1978)     72(2011)*


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Gorelow/Woods

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office