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125 FXUS65 KVEF 121805 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1105 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening but will favor Mohave County. * Monsoonal moisture remains in place through next week resulting in continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday. A weak shortwave that has been triggering thunderstorms in the Tucson area this evening will work its way to the west and into western San Bernardino County late Sunday morning and lift north along the southern Sierra on Sunday afternoon. Convection to our east in Coconino County will work their way to the west and into Mohave County during the late afternoon and work their way toward the Colorado River Valley during the evening hours. Any storms will be isolated but will produce little rainfall and the potential for strong and gusty winds. We`ll be paying close attention to any storms or outflow that move across the Red Lake dry lake bed in central Mohave County for the potential of lofting dust. Forecast soundings indicate classic inverted-V signature with modest instability in the midlevels, favoring more of a wind threat vs heavy rain/flash flooding threat through Sunday. The latest HREF shows 70%+ probabilities for gusts over 30MPH for much of the eastern half of Mohave County Sunday evening (6PM - 10PM). Confidence is lower with how far west these outflow winds will make it during the evening but the potential is there to reach Lakes Mead and Mohave and into the eastern portions of the Las Vegas Valley. An active monsoonal weather pattern will continue during the week. Moisture will become more widespread and deeper on Monday and Tuesday, enabling for more substantial rainfall rates and an increased risk of flash flooding. Without any noteworthy forcing mechanisms, storms will likely continue to favor the terrain at first before shifting into valleys or triggering on outflow boundaries. Precipitation chances and focus for thunderstorm impacts will likely become more specific as we get closer. Tropical activity is likely to increase in the eastern Pacific which may influence additional influxes of moisture of the Gulf of California and into the Desert Southwest later in the week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...The primary aviation concern this forecast period will be potential thunderstorm outflow winds to impact the terminal this evening. Until then, winds are expected to be south to southwest through much of the afternoon with speeds generally around 10 knots with occasional gusts between 15-20 knots. At this point, thunderstorm chances this afternoon are
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