895
FXUS65 KVEF 121152
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
452 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening but will
  favor Mohave County.

* Monsoonal moisture remains in place through next week resulting
  in continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday.

A weak shortwave that has been triggering thunderstorms in the
Tucson area this evening will work its way to the west and into
western San Bernardino County late Sunday morning and lift north
along the southern Sierra on Sunday afternoon. Convection to our
east in Coconino County will work their way to the west and into
Mohave County during the late afternoon and work their way toward
the Colorado River Valley during the evening hours. Any storms
will be isolated but will produce little rainfall and the
potential for strong and gusty winds. We`ll be paying close
attention to any storms or outflow that move across the Red Lake
dry lake bed in central Mohave County for the potential of lofting
dust. Forecast soundings indicate classic inverted-V signature
with modest instability in the midlevels, favoring more of a wind
threat vs heavy rain/flash flooding threat through Sunday. The
latest HREF shows 70%+ probabilities for gusts over 30MPH for much
of the eastern half of Mohave County Sunday evening (6PM - 10PM).
Confidence is lower with how far west these outflow winds will
make it during the evening but the potential is there to reach
Lakes Mead and Mohave and into the eastern portions of the Las
Vegas Valley.

An active monsoonal weather pattern will continue during the week.
Moisture will become more widespread and deeper on Monday and
Tuesday, enabling for more substantial rainfall rates and an
increased risk of flash flooding. Without any noteworthy forcing
mechanisms, storms will likely continue to favor the terrain at
first before shifting into valleys or triggering on outflow
boundaries. Precipitation chances and focus for thunderstorm
impacts will likely become more specific as we get closer.
Tropical activity is likely to increase in the eastern Pacific
which may influence additional influxes of moisture of the Gulf of
California and into the Desert Southwest later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...The
primary aviation concern this forecast period will be potential
thunderstorm outflow winds to impact the terminal this evening.
Until then, winds will vary somewhat between southerly to
southeasterly, around 8-10KT with intermittent higher gusts to
around 18KT through the afternoon. Before sunset, winds shift to
the southwest, increasing to 10-12KT, though prevailing wind
directions will be dependent on any outflow boundaries that
develop. Currently the most likely window for easterly outflow
winds and thunderstorm development over higher terrain
surrounding the valley is between 03Z-07Z (roughly a 10% chance of
nearby storm development, but a 30% chance of outflow winds from
distant storms). Overnight, winds will become lighter, dropping
under 8KT through Monday morning. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail with ceilings at or above 10kft.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds across most of
the  region will be southerly to southeasterly through late
afternoon, with speeds around 10KT. Intermittently higher gusts
are possible, especially in the terrain-favored areas along the
Colorado River Valley near KIFP where gusts to 15-20KT can be
expected, and in the northern Owens Valley/KBIH where stronger
up-valley winds are expected to gust to 25-30KT this afternoon and
early evening. Across the western Mojave/KDAG, winds will be
around 5-10KT and somewhat variable before becoming gusty out of
the west by mid-afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
over northwestern Arizona this afternoon and evening, accompanied
by erratic gusty winds and lightning. Outflow from these storms
will move westward through the evening, potentially impacting KIFP
and Las Vegas Valley TAF sites mid- to late evening, with
thunderstorms generally confined to the higher terrain.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Czyzyk
AVIATION...Phillipson

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office