125
FXUS65 KVEF 121805
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1105 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening but will
  favor Mohave County.

* Monsoonal moisture remains in place through next week resulting
  in continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday.

A weak shortwave that has been triggering thunderstorms in the
Tucson area this evening will work its way to the west and into
western San Bernardino County late Sunday morning and lift north
along the southern Sierra on Sunday afternoon. Convection to our
east in Coconino County will work their way to the west and into
Mohave County during the late afternoon and work their way toward
the Colorado River Valley during the evening hours. Any storms
will be isolated but will produce little rainfall and the
potential for strong and gusty winds. We`ll be paying close
attention to any storms or outflow that move across the Red Lake
dry lake bed in central Mohave County for the potential of lofting
dust. Forecast soundings indicate classic inverted-V signature
with modest instability in the midlevels, favoring more of a wind
threat vs heavy rain/flash flooding threat through Sunday. The
latest HREF shows 70%+ probabilities for gusts over 30MPH for much
of the eastern half of Mohave County Sunday evening (6PM - 10PM).
Confidence is lower with how far west these outflow winds will
make it during the evening but the potential is there to reach
Lakes Mead and Mohave and into the eastern portions of the Las
Vegas Valley.

An active monsoonal weather pattern will continue during the week.
Moisture will become more widespread and deeper on Monday and
Tuesday, enabling for more substantial rainfall rates and an
increased risk of flash flooding. Without any noteworthy forcing
mechanisms, storms will likely continue to favor the terrain at
first before shifting into valleys or triggering on outflow
boundaries. Precipitation chances and focus for thunderstorm
impacts will likely become more specific as we get closer.
Tropical activity is likely to increase in the eastern Pacific
which may influence additional influxes of moisture of the Gulf of
California and into the Desert Southwest later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...The
primary aviation concern this forecast period will be potential
thunderstorm outflow winds to impact the terminal this evening.
Until then, winds are expected to be south to southwest through much
of the afternoon with speeds generally around 10 knots with
occasional gusts between 15-20 knots. At this point, thunderstorm
chances this afternoon are 

NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office



Bensweather.com Official Sponsors